Bordeaux 2010: Back to the Future

If buyers of Bordeaux 2010 En Primeur had hopped into Marty McFly’s DeLorean DMC-12 and landed in 2015, what would they have discovered? For the buyers, the news – overall – would not have been good.

Released at the peak of the market in June 2011, prices for Bordeaux 2010 went into freefall. There are examples of wines – mostly low production from the Right Bank – bucking this trend, such as 100-point Le Pin 2010 which has gained 49% since release. However, on average, wines from this celebrated vintage have dropped 19.7% since release.

Bordeaux 2010 price performance

For some, the decline has been more dramatic: Lafite Rothschild 2010 has tumbled 50.3%; Clarence Haut Brion 2010 is down 48%. However, the vintage has recently been attracting increased interest. It has been the most traded Bordeaux vintage on the Exchange for the past three months and is looking set for a fourth: last week it represented 42.8% of all Bordeaux activity.

But does this increased interest translate into recovering prices? In short, if there is a recovery, it is divided.

At the market’s low in July 2014, these wines were an average of 19.8% off release. Now 19.7% below their release prices, the overall gain is negligible. However, several appear to have reached a level at which buyers are finding value – and the tide is turning: since July 2014, 23 out of 50 of the wines from the Bordeaux 500 Index are in positive territory. Montrose 2010 has been the top performer, making gains of 16.8% since the market’s low. This brings it back into positive territory since release (+4.6%) – though it is still trading below the price of its fellow 100-point vintage, the 2009, suggesting further room for movement.

LIV-EX BLOG: 26th October 2015